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Wednesday, 4 April 2012

Green-shoots or bumping along the bottom?

Economic commentators seemed by the constant negative talk to be willing us into the much feared double-dip. The OECD last week told the world that we are already in it and predicted a Q1 2012 GDP of -0.1pc.

The stats coming out in the UK point to a different story. If the various PMI data on manufacturing, construction and the dominant services sector are to be believed the UK Economy is performing better than the experts suggest. Combined, the PMI data suggest UK Plc grew 0.5pc in the period January to March, more than reversing the contraction at the end of 2011 and blowing away any suggestion of double-dip.

Lets wait for the official ONS figures, but if the PMI surveys turn out to be broadly correct are we now seeing at last green shoots of recovery in the UK or just another bump along the long anaemic recovery predicted by Mervin king with more downturns to face along the way?

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